Russia Proclaims Cold War

Such nonsense! Russia claims a new cold war has begun between the East and the West. Well it is true if they say so because they are the ones at war with whomever.

The West is not at war with Russia. Period.

It takes two parties or more to have a war. Sort of like North Korea. If they want hostilities to break out I guess all they have to do is continue to act warlike and commit acts of aggression against a sovereign people – like South Korea, China, parts of Malaysia, or pick a fight with the US Military. It’s an easy thing to do, an act of aggression. But it is not an easy thing to keep going. War with North Korea would be short and unpleasant for them. Their first act of aggression would meet with a response far outside the size of their initial act.

Besides, North Korea has everything to lose and nothing to gain. They already have starvation broad spread among their people. Living standards are next to nothing unless you are in the leadership caste of the military or government. But those living standards and perks come with the threat of summary execution so one has to question the living standard in the first place.

Any war with North Korea would be too expensive for them to maintain unless their’s is a suicide pact of some sort.

Now Russia is another matter. They have the materiel, the systems and the manpower to maintain a warlike posture for some time. But when that is gone their capability is gone. They have no money to resupply their manpower or materiel and systems. Russia is broke. Their programs are failing as their economy fails. The oil bust has reduced their international revenue flow to near zero. Their oil stores are full now but they cannot afford to use their own inventory and then replace it.

That is the nature of the oil industry bust. Yes, it is temporary. But everyone needs to remember that the oil industry is unlikely to return to the old normal anytime soon. They are, in fact, in danger of being replaced by other fuel and energy sources unrelated to oil. Unfortunately those new sources will almost replace oil as a dominant energy source. And it is about time this happened.

Oil is a fossil fuel that pollutes everything it touches. Pollution kills fauna and flora and people, too. So it is time to reduce its presence in our life style and replace it with nonpolluting energy sources.

Back to the Cold War. Russia has domestic problems. Their method of managing those is via propaganda directed at its own people. For Mr. Putin to remain a hero or potent leader, he must show he has muscle and nerve. We know he has both. But a leader, especially one who desires hero status, must steer his society clear of danger and death. Leading it into military excursions for propaganda purposes is expensive with little positive gain. Furthermore, if an error is made in such excursions, Russia will face a backlash from injured nations that will dash the peace for a long time to come. Totally unnecessary. And everyone understand this.

There may be some Russians at home who don’t understand this, but everyone else does, even Putin. So adventure-ism for propaganda purposes at home is a high cost risk for practically no gain.

There is no Cold War. If one were to actually form, it would be between the entire Western civilization and Russia and a few of its smaller allies. That is the true nature of the world today.

Yes, China is a major factor, but there is no way that China and Russia will combine to wage a Cold War. China would lose far too much and for no gain whatsoever. So Russia is mouthing an empty message.

Perhaps Russia needs a few skirmishes among its own people and the ruling classes? Now there’s a Cold War that might have worthwhile consequences.  Too bad the losers would be both domestic and government leaders.

February 15, 2016