Bits and Pieces

Florida Building Collapse: What goes up must come down. The law of gravity has its way in all things. Of course, the downward pull ought not be a devastating event causing loss of life. The condo collapse in Florida is a big deal. There are potential causes galore, not the least of which is poor bedrock access, sink holes, rising ocean levels, and horrendous wind and rainstorms battering buildings all the time. Weathering is a primary depreciator of all real estate. We ought not be surprised by that. However, engineering usually allays those threats with huge error margins.

My suspicion is subsidence will be the primary cause of the collapse. That is the gradual sinking of the building in a soil condition that is not solid enough to sustain the building’s weight, rising tides, ground water levels and weathering.

Florida real estate developers know to build houses on stilts in flood prone areas. High rise developers need to build to bedrock if it exists. If not, build larger pontoons!

Slimmer Despot: Much of North Koreans are underfed and emaciated. It was always a ponder how the current despot could be fat and ungainly in his movements because of his weight. Now that he has slimmed down, he looks better, healthier and fit for heavy duty work. Instead, people are thinking he is drastically ill and lost weight too quickly. What a bunch of nonsense. He is a young man and needed to pare his weight. From the looks of his picture, he still needs to lose another 50 pounds.

He is free to eat anything and everything whenever he wants it. That puts on unneeded pounds and he knows it. Is he sick? I doubt that would be reported. Is he losing weight? The photos say yes. Maybe that weight loss is intentional and due to a healthy regimen. Meanwhile, assume that is the case. Thinking the negative does no one any good anyway.

Mission vs Outcome: I’ve been in strategic planning for 40 years or more. I am continually amazed by people who think defining their mission is the last step, not the first. How can any organization plan for the future if it doesn’t know what it is about and what driving values and forces truly define them? Identifying a desired outcome is helpful in solving problems, but it doesn’t define the organization. Normally the organization comes first. They know what they want to deal with and labor toward. Define that now, at the beginning of planning. Then move on to where the organization should be or look like in 10 or 15 years if the mission is successful. That provides scope and scale of the organization and its mission. It does not define mission.

Outcomes are objectives and goals created as an outgrowth of the mission. Putting goals first is placing the cart before the horse. It might work if the horse is very talented!

June 29, 2021

 

Marooned

Well, not exactly marooned, but it sure felt like it. There I was, a constant user of computers and electronic tools for 30 years or more, and suddenly my computer was in the shop for a checkup and maintenance. Geek Squad offered to do this for me and included Rocky’s computer as well. So here we were both without our laptops. At least Rocky had his Apple I-pad.

I relied heavily on my android phone. Got it to do routine incoming emails with short responses when needed. I even kept up with my Facebook and news flashes. But real communication stopped, including this blog.

I discovered my Microsoft Surface gathering dust on the office bookcase. I dusted it off and tried to remember my password and other protocols. I had forgotten the Surface came without an owners manual; all instructions were online, but to access them your surface had to work! It didn’t because I couldn’t remember the password.

After 30 hours of thinking, I remembered the password and fired up the minicomputer. I couldn’t do Facebook; it said an outdated version of something or other was blocking current use. I was able to get my normal news feeds but forgot how small all the print fonts were. I managed to keep abreast of the breaking news and soon found myself withdrawing from constant news following.

A sense of freedom began to grow. I was not a fan of being disconnected from the world, but I reminded myself that some people spend tens of thousands of dollars to get away from it all for a week or 10 days. Here I was getting the same result at no cost! Except, my inner self did not relax. I was anxious about what I was missing. I wondered how many clients and family would think I’d dropped off the face of the earth.

Tracking the repairs and progress toward computer return was easy with Geek Squad. They sent reminders to me and even called twice. We arranged the pickup appointment for Sunday afternoon, and they reported both computers were fit for continued use. Rocky’s is about to bite the dust, but they backed up all of his memory with a terabyte thingy and we bought the appliance as well. So, we are ready to back up his machine and replace it with my old machine should his drop dead suddenly. That would mean I would have to replace mine, but we could limp through with a rebuilt computer on the cheap. I am ready for that eventuality and preparing my mind for it.

It took me one hour and fifteen minutes Sunday afternoon to set up my computer, reboot it, and catch up on all the work missed in the last three days. I even had time to write this blog post and will publish it Monday morning.

The marooned feeling is already ebbing. Quickly. I am most grateful.

We will now make an appointment for more work with Geek Squad. Next time at the house. The TV surround sound and stereo system needs coordination. I think the techs will fix it up for us in no time. Then, there’s the TV remote issue, a streamlined computer set up, and oh, another thing……

June 28, 2021

 

Misreporting

I have noticed reporting by major news organizations have increasingly played to the fear card. Sometimes this is subtle. Often not. Even among trusted newscasters like NBC Network News, Lester Holt, and others. Here’s an example of what I’m referring to.

Tuesday evening, June 22, 2021, Lester Holt led with the report on the nation missing Biden’s vaccination goal of 70%. That goal was to achieve vaccinations of at least 1 dose-shot among 70% of all adults by July 4^th. The report claims the goal will be missed. They went on to report what populations are shying away from vaccinations and why.

No where did they report what the vaccination rate is likely to be. No numbers.

I want to know if the vaccination rate will end up on July 4^th at 65% or 68%. My suspicion is it will land near 70%, perhaps 69% plus or minus a tiny factor.

Anything close to 69% is a win. The US started vaccinations at nearly zero when Biden came on board. Look what has been accomplished since then. And the numbers continue to increase, although the rate of increase is slowing. That is to be expected as the numbers base is large and growing. Percentage increases will continue to lessen as we near 100%, an unlikely number given the politicizing of this issue.

But that is my point. COVID-19 has been politicized from the beginning.

I am a strategic planner, have been for 40+ years. In my business we set goals, sometimes stretch goals to pull us toward where we really want to be by a certain timeline. A goal of 70% was a stretcher goal to be sure. If we make 69%, that is a near win worthy of celebration. If we achieve 65%, then it is “nice try,” keep going to 70% and beyond. The game is not over yet. Instead, the news report makes it seem like a dire failure.

If the report focuses on the 70% goal, then it is incumbent on the news report to say what the figure actually is at the moment and what it is likely to be by the due date. None of that was reported by Holt or NBC News. That is a failure of ethical journalism.

This sort of thing has been growing in the past year or two. It is time to call it out.

I firmly believe the facts should be reported and the audience should be encouraged to make up its own mind as to the value of those facts. It would be helpful if NBC would dig deeper in a special report of 15 minutes or longer on the details of the situation, not just monger fear.

I am shocked that Lester Holt went along with this. I have watched his career grow from local Chicago news to national prominence. I am proud of his professional achievement. Lately, however, he has become the mouthpiece of network news writers. They are doing a poor job. His spouting the words does not change the facts. Nor does it polish his ethical image.

June 25, 2021

PS: This posting was done on Sunday, not Friday. That is due to my computer being in the repair shop for three days. I will write and post a fresh blog item Monday morning. 

  

Sports or Education?

College and university life are all about education and personal development. It is not merely vocational. Nor is it athletic.

An athlete may create a lucrative career for him or herself with a successful team sport performance during the college years, but the opposite is mostly true: athletes exit higher education with fewer completed degrees and poor preparation for managing their careers. They frequently leave school with broken bodies leading to early disabilities in their remaining adulthood.

I understand the allure of college sports. I understand the alumni wanting to support their alma mater through winning football and baseball teams. It is even more exciting when gymnastics, tennis and golf team members score large and move onto the national and international stages. How proud they feel. Just remember not all athletes share in that success. Only the cream of the crop get to the vaunted apex. The rest are fodder that supplies the champions. They are second or third or fourth best. Most likely they wind up much lower on the success scale!

The real success is the education the student gains through study and hard work. Stretching the mind and character is the means to learning about oneself and creating a platform for lifetime success. Athletics may be a means to pay the tuition for that education, but it is not the end-all.

The purpose – mission – of the educational institution is education. Not athletics. Not a national championship. Period.

Both are possible, however, if the institution does its job. To do that, however, the college must protect the athlete’s intellectual advancement first and sports second. The question is: do colleges and universities do that? I think not.

They should and they can. Why don’t they?

June 24, 2021

 

 

Housing Shortage?

A definition of shortage – any shortage – is lack of supply for the demand for the same thing. So, if more people want new cars than the available supply, there is a shortage of cars. While this statement is factual, there is another reality: the supply of cars – old and new – continues regardless of the demand.

In America there are 109 million cars registered (2019) for a population of 323 million. There are more operating automobiles than one third of the population in the USA. Consider most people under the age of 18 do not own a car, and people over 80 are most likely reducing vehicle ownership, then roughly 95 million people do not have a car. That means 230 million share 109 million vehicles, nearly 1 car for every two adults.

Clearly there is not a shortage of cars. Yet the press claims there is a shortage.

Part of the story unanalyzed is what is the number of NEW cars WANTED versus NEEDED. Another is why only NEW? The supply of late model cars is huge. It can be argued that the current shortage is temporary and subjective.

I maintain the same is true in housing. Just because people are staying in their homes rather than selling and buying another one, does not mean there is a shortage of housing. We continued to build new homes, condos, and apartments continually.  Housing supply continues to grow. At any given moment there may be more people wanting to buy a different home than is currently available on the market. That does not compute to a housing shortage, merely a temporary weakness in the market.

Interestingly, the pandemic demonstrated that ‘work from home’ works for employers. Employees loved it as well. More personal time, less or no commuting expense, less wear and tear on the family car and wardrobes, all while productivity and innovation grew. Employers also witnessed a reduction of expense for office space, utilities, and maintenance. The work-from-home model may be here to stay. Or a hybrid of it.

That means more people can work from home and live wherever they desire. Living in a more rural environment is now practical and it is cheaper. With lessening the need for housing closer to place of employment, housing supply loosens up in what was a more in-demand market. So, it is more accurate to state housing markets are in flex while norms are changing to different work-place models.

If employers insist on a return to the office (not very likely), then employees have new options. They can become independent consultants and sell to more employers all while working from home. This is a win-win situation because families gain from more personal time while employers reduce their overhead costs for buildings and related expenses. Do we need to mention the added benefit of improved innovation and productivity? Really? Isn’t this the point of training and development? To make our workforce more productive and creative?

Imbalances in the housing market are a fluid reality. Such imbalances do not spell shortage.

I think the press needs to do a better job on explaining what they mean.

June 23, 2021

 

Violence

There are those in Illinois – my state of residence – that believe we are experiencing a large increase in violence, shootings, and death. They claim this is the fault of the current governor and mayor of Chicago. They make this argument to create political discord and pressure for a return to republican leadership. Of course, this is wrongheaded.

First and foremost, nearly every state, county and city has experienced a surge in violence over the last several years. In fact, decades. Public spending has expanded police numbers, tools, and programs to battle the violence. Universities are studying the root causes of violence. Pundits step forward to air their latest ideas and opinions on these issues, too, usually to no helpful end.

The truth of the matter is complex. There are many causes of today’s violence. Here are some just for the record:

1.      Massive gun ownership in America. The number goes up year after year; not down; up. The tools of violence are omnipresent. Add public anger and incivility and violence is a natural result.

2.      Gun laws are pitiful. They are so watered down police can rarely enforce the laws and reduce violence at the same time. The gun laws are without teeth.

3.      Poverty drives discord in most communities. Fix poverty and violence will drop.

4.      Desperate people lose their self control and ignore the social contract that maintains calm. They spin out of control and hurt themselves or others in rampages. With a gun the spree turns to death.

5.      Injustice and racism foment desperation. Violence soon follows.

6.      Misguided political movements roil people who think they have been wronged and their turn to violence springs to life. That is essentially the story behind the January 6^th attack on the US Capitol building.

7.      Social unrest feeds on itself and pushes people into behavior they ordinarily would not think of. Violence is readily at hand in such situations.

8.      Violence is emotional, not tactical. Spur of the moment action creates mayhem and mass shootings.

How to fix these items? It takes research, study, analysis, clear thinking, and discussions among broad populations seeking peaceful outcomes. However, Congress does not allow research into gun ownership or restrictions. Understanding cause and effect of guns is outlawed by Congress. Hard to believe this is true, but the National Rifle Association made this public policy many years ago. It remains in place.

A good start on the right path is to abolish all gun laws on the books, and rewrite a sensible public policy supported by workable laws with teeth. By the way, the Second Amendment has nothing to do with public ownership of guns; it deals with a well ordered militia because, at the time of writing the Constitution, no standing army was provided. That is it. Second Amendment rights to gun ownership has been a misnomer all this time. Best we deal with that reality honestly and forthrightly.

Understanding racism is another repair long overdue. This is uncomfortable for white people in the majority to face. They refuse to believe they are racist while at the same time celebrate their whiteness and majority status. Let us watch what happens in a few years when white is minority. Inexorably that is the reality in America. Best we settle this essential point beforehand so guns are not then the issue.

Until then, uncontrolled guns and gun ownership remains in the center of violence in our society. It is not the cause; it is an effect. The causes are many. It is not guns; it is not racism or poverty or political spoils alone. They all contribute to the result of violence. Then too, they are all the result that leads to more violence.

It is time that we recognize commonsense and fix what is clearly very broken.

June 22, 2021

 

A Fly on the Wall?

Diplomacy is a sleeper of a career. Getting along with other nations requires many tiny acts of cooperation. Interacting with another nation’s culture, people, and customs, is one way to learn what matters, even what words mean and thus how to communicate intelligently with others in that country.

Learning more about a nation takes study, research, and concentration. In some instances, the host nation does not want everything to be known; that requires stealth and prying to learn what is important. Not a nice part of diplomacy, but often quite necessary. This is the dark side of diplomacy. We have decades of Cold War experience to understand why organizations like the CIA and KGB were and remain important mechanisms in diplomatic circles.

In relationships like Russia and the USA, much is said about actions large and small. Mountains of concern are heaped in front of us on network news programs. Threats and dangers are paraded routinely – why is Russia staging military maneuvers near Finland, Ukraine, Crimea, the Middle East, and so on? Sneers and insults lobbed by Putin toward Biden and America in general are treated as prime Cold War fodder to rile the audience. Why? Do these actions actually occur? Are they as important a they are made to seem, or are they exaggerated for effect? Are we reading too much into it? Or what?

That’s when I would like to be a fly on the wall of meetings between Biden and Putin. What did they actually say? How did they appear? Were they truly friendly or was it all for show? Did they get any personal time with each other in private when they could talk plainly? How much of this is show? How much of this is real?

I guess we will never really know. One thing that comforts me, however, is knowing that cool minds do communicate with one another often. Just knowing that relationship is functional calms my fears. I do not want Russia, China and the USA acting like schoolyard bullies when patience wears thin and brash action takes place. I want our leaders to calmly discuss important matters and get along with one another. That builds trust and positive actions. That keeps the peace and constructive interactions.

I do not expect China or Russia to love America. I do expect them to get along with us. We should get along with them, too. Talking is a good thing. Seeing our common humanity is settling. Knowing what each country fears about the other is a good thing. Knowing what each needs is another. Often, we can help one another ease the fear and satisfy need. Little things pop up. They are attended to. They do not grow into larger issues to fight over.

No; we learn to get along in a violent and uneasy world. That is what diplomacy is supposed to do. Keeping calm. Building peace. Even when times are uneasy.

I am happy Putin and Biden are talking. I like to see them shaking hands and smiling at one another. It means other matters can be discussed and managed. It means reason and logic remain in place for another day.

It seems a small matter. But it is not. This is the slow, plodding routine of diplomacy. It is necessary. And the basis for future.

June 21, 2021