Testing Putin

Submarines, military jets and diplomatic mission statements at odds with past standards.  The submarines moving mysteriously about the world ostensibly snooping on ports of call unannounced and in silence. Just like the cold war days.

Military jet flights testing civilian aircraft in foreign territory well outside of Russia. High flights entering protected NATO airspace and American space, too.

Troop movements throughout the old Soviet territory and along bordering nations uncomfortable with such movement.

Military troop training maneuvers close to disputed geography.

Sound like an old spy novel? Or an old Cold War documentary?

No these are all the latest presence of Russia’s Putin demonstrating to his people that he is in charge and will make the world alert to Russia’s presence. He is testing the global village.

What he doesn't understand is the simplicity of the global village: we are all participants and understand how the balance of power and peace exists in the global village.

Putin does not get this. He thinks he is testing the world. In actuality we are testing him. And he has failed.

A global village requires participation and compromise. That is how peace is built and maintained. It is also how it is expanded upon. Do it differently and peace constricts.

In Putin’s case his fragile nation will be buffeted by these reactions by the global community:

            -Economic sanctions

            -Need for more military materiel and weaponry

            -Need for more military personnel

            -Need for more spending taken from domestic matters

            -Growing need and deprivation of the civilian population

            -Political repercussions within Russia

            -Loss of esteem and historical significance of Putin

Why does this scenario work? Because we are all members of the global community. No man is an island, remember? Russia’s economy relies on global markets, global currencies, global resources and minerals. The entire standard of living of Russia internally relies on global cooperation. Not contention and aggravation. On this score Putin has already lost the battle.

As economic sanctions take their toll Putin is likely to dig in and be more stubborn. This will lead to the false need of military defense. More weapons, materiel and personnel will be required to keep this pose believable. Trouble is Russia’s resources are not unlimited. His nation’s systems of education, transportation, agriculture, manufacturing and human resources are deeply flawed. Any dislocation of resources in one will make for catastrophic shortages in others. People will suffer. Economic shortages, pricing and loss of wages and pensions will slowly paralyze the nation. People don’t like that. Leaders will either find better solutions or become more dictatorial to maintain discipline. In a time of plenty worldwide, why should Russian citizens be deprived?

This message will grow throughout his land and Putin will be tossed out in favor of calmer leaders and ones who seek compromise and collaboration – so that all may prosper.

With increasing belligerence Putin will find himself increasingly isolated. And his nation as well.

That is not the Russian mindset. They are people of art, feeling and romance. They

understand the sensibility of mankind over the millennia. They know history is

about how well the peoples of the globe get along, not how they press hegemony over

others. That’s likely to get them isolation and poverty. Outcast status is not comfortable.

History books are filled with the story of despots and egomaniacs who wish a greater

name for themselves. Those stories, all of them, did not end well for them and their people.

It’s about time Putin understood this before he invites disaster upon his very own people!

November 12, 2014