Oil Prices/Energy Future

The oil industry has it wrong: They are in the energy business.

The days of the oil industry as it has been for a century or more are over. About 20 years ago it should have become the Energy Industry. But to oil people change comes slowly.

Have you ever known someone in the industry? I have. A lot of them. They were well heeled mostly. Big cars frequently changed; almost all large gas guzzlers. Their homes, too, were large and inefficient. I shudder at the thought of their utility bills! They also traveled widely and often, and spent money freely. There was no tomorrow; tomorrow was today! And they enjoyed it.

Those times are changing, however, as they must. Pollution alone is the bell weather that demands we alter our use of fossil fuels. Public health is another bell weather as much as we try to disguise it otherwise. So too are prices of oil in the past years, climbing higher and higher while leaving many in the dust.

Well, oil prices have changed most recently to lower levels unimaginable just a short time ago. And people in the oil industry are very nervous. There is talk of major oil company bankruptcies, turmoil in energy markets, bankrupt oil drilling towns and drilling equipment manufacturers. There are indications that the world oil markets are saturated with product and thus prices have collapsed. There are entire nations (Russia, Libya, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia) who are trembling with the specter of collapsed oil prices; their economies are declining and they fear collapse.

Well they should. They have built empires on oil. They have pyramided oil prices into panics of skyrocketing values. As breathtaking as that is, the drop in prices for them is even more breathtaking.

With outrageous product demand and prices came military conquests of the Middle East. And pipeline skirmishes in Asia, Europe and elsewhere. Remember that America discovered oil and its rich uses. As America created its own oil industry, it shared its technology with the world, beginning with Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Middle East. That’s how that region of the world became so important.

With that importance came power – real and imagined – and power whether well understood and managed or not. Soon power brokers rose up and nations chose allies. With this came culture wars and religions continued their 1000-year jockeying for pre-eminence. And then the Holy Wars began again making the Crusades pale in comparison.

The Middle East became the hot spot of unrest and war and human suffering. All fighting over oil supplies. But not much longer.

The world community knows energy comes from other sources and is counting on developing those resources. This will diversify energy points of origin, ownership, and management. It will soften the long term cost of energy. It will democratize energy. And it will give most of the world’s nations local power over their own energy creation and consumption. There is a real opportunity to lessen international political tension as a result.

What a welcome relief that will be!

With that development the world economy will become more diversified and give nations opportunities to shine in their specialty fields. The world community will thus be strengthened. Once again we will be able to touch other cultures with awe and appreciation for their gifts to the well-being of the community.

I think we need more of that. We need less power brokering and political sword rattling. We need more peace making and collaboration. It is one planet, after all is said and done. And we will make of it what we will. Best if we go into this with open and just minds so all are included.

The world belongs to all of us. It would be helpful and healthy if we acted like it did.

Energy is a much larger issue with many diverse sources. And sciences. It is time we took responsibility for this reality and relegated oil to a minor role in our future.

Here! Here!

January 14, 2016

State of the Union

At his last State Of The Union address, President Obama nailed the opportunity to recap what the past seven years has been like. Focusing on the positive is refreshing. So much good was accomplished in the face of so much negative press. I guess the nature of the press is to report on what is wrong so citizens can attend to those problems. Well, reasonable people would assume that might be what they are doing. But they would be wrong, wouldn’t they?

Yes, the press reports on what’s going wrong in society, but they are also supposed to be pointing out what might be going well, too. Not only that, but they would do well to report on people who are doing good things so the society at large grows stronger and more resilient to whatever major changes come down our paths.

A teacher reaching out to a hungry student in her class; feeding the child unobtrusively so the kid feels cared for but not as a target of charity. Included and embraced is the feeling the teacher may be reaching for. That message alone is hopeful. That script is ever present in American life but because we don’t see it in print we don’t think it exists. Those who are involved in the lives of others know the opposite!

Teachers, social workers, community organizers, church staff who interact daily with the people of the church. These folks know what is going on in neighborhoods, cities and towns across the nation. It is not hidden from our view. It is quite present, but the press chooses not to focus attention on this part of our communal life. Too bad. Cynics rise up through the mists of ignorance quite easily. And the press helps make this happen.

So with our attention during news programs and quick scans of print press outlets, we get a warped view of what is going on.

Financial news is all about unemployment, collapsed housing markets, collapsed interest rate markets and falling stock prices.

Hmmmph! Let’s see, eight years ago the stock market was considerably less than half of where it is now. That’s right! The stock market was down and going lower. The great conservative push towards smaller government and growth of wealth for investors, collapsed the markets. Those with money were positioned to make lots of money, but only if the value of what everyone owned in the past was devalued. And that happened. Under republicans. Under conservatives.

Now, seven years later the stock market is at stunning levels. There is opportunity in many niches of our society. Sometimes it is staring us in our face. We don’t realize we are fighting a shadow of what we once thought and believed; that didn’t prove out. What we ought to be fighting is a misty, incomplete view of reality that we have assumed without knowing it. The world is dynamic and changing and exciting with new ideas. It is those ideas that will propel us into the next ten or twenty years.

Get off the oil standard of life! Stop thinking that oil is the only source of energy. It isn’t. Hasn’t been for some time now. Ford Motor Company finally gets it. They realize they are in the transportation industry; personalized transportation in the main, but still in the transportation industry. They move people from one location to another. Cars do this. Rented cars and owned cars. Shared cars. buses, trains, planes and boats also move people.

Gasoline engines power cars and trucks. But so do electric motors. So does nuclear energy in ships. Oil is a lubricant and chemical base for many other products. We ought not waste that utilitarian aspect of the product. Use it fully. Just don’t burn it! Besides, doing that pollutes the planet.

In its stead develop energy sources that are plentiful, readily available, and transportable.  Solar, wind, thermal and chemical power have much to offer when fully developed. So too the benefits of physics research in power sourcing and generation. We can do much more and all without oil. So let’s get on with it.

We cannot make rapid strides if we don’t try.

So, we rely on oil for the meanwhile, but firmly know we are replacing it with other energy resources. Ford understands this. Other companies don’t. Certainly Congress doesn’t.

We can make the oil industry irrelevant. Just think of the avoided pollution. Think also of the unrest and wars in the Middle East that focus on oil and spoils of oil. What a colossal waste of life, liberty, national treasure and time. Literally a waste of time. We should have been re-focusing our attention all these years. Think of where we would have arrived at by now if we hadn’t been wasting our time and treasure on the Middle East.

For one thing ISIS would not be an issue. Gaza would not be an issue. The Cradle of Civilization would still be a classroom and laboratory for archaeology and history and study of religions as it was before the great upset for power over oil markets.

The timelessness of man’s journey on the face of the globe teaches us one huge lesson: the more life changes the more it stays the same.

Do not fall for the short term, get quick rich scheme, or the instant power grab. The benefits are fleet and short lived. History takes time and declares winners and losers with the benefit of hindsight and foresight.

There are good things in our life. There are movements within our culture that are rich and powerful and easily shared among each of us. That is the state of our union. It is more positive than today’s politicians can possibly imagine. The clamorers of attention only delude the simple minded and themselves. They miss the point of what America is and can be. It is a broad shouldered nation we have. It is not as weak as the Trumps, Cruzs and Rubios claim it to be. And we are brighter and more intelligent than they give us credit to be.

Obama knows this, has known this. Thank God we had Obama through this difficult time. Simpler minds got us into the mess; strong minds got us out of it.

Now, who will we choose to continue our progress?

January 13, 2015

Stock Values and China?

Global markets, world communications, clashing cultures, politics and all the rest. An open, competitive global economy is raucous, wild and for now, quite unpredictable. You bet! And we are seeing the results in the melt down of China’s stock market.

Many investors shudder at China’s situation and feel, evidently, that it will affect all markets everywhere. And so America’s stock exchanges react with thrilling drops in value! Well, that’s one way to get the blood pumping in the new, cold year!

It need not be so. And calmer minds know this.

The fundamentals of the American economy are sound. Labor markets are returning to sustainable growth patterns. More importantly, newly skilled labor components are entering the market and supporting employers’ requirements for a smarter, skilled staff roster.

The financial recession of 2007-2012 was a doozy. Its remnants continue to live on; there are components of the economy that still have not returned to healthy status. But the cautious note taken from that? Past health is not a precursor to what will be health in the future.

Simply put: the future holds entirely new things, standards and expectations for us all. Yes we must have housing; but no, the old standards will not likely stand. We will seek new standards that are not only sustainable, but also supportive of quality of life development. Social interaction of the family will be the focus. Private space for individual thinking, study and meditation will be provided. Interaction between indoors and out-of-doors will be highlighted. Aesthetic design components will be included. Location and transportation issues will be much more accommodated than in the past, that is, adjacency to shopping, work and social obligations.

These are the critical elements in housing that will dictate how Americans will choose their housing accommodations. Until then old housing stock will be targeted for refitting, demolition and replacement. The new opportunities will use land more efficiently, redraw commuting maps and challenge both interior design efficiency as well as utility consumption efficiency. Walking distances will be more important; reduction of family auto fleets will occur.

Such fundamentals will dictate many other factoids of economic measurement. China is a manufacturer of consumer goods for the world. That is what they have done for the past generation. They have a future of more of this, but remember the risks: consumer patterns change; manufacturing investments have shorter thresholds of time going into the future.

Change and adaptability are the by-words for the future.

You may scratch your head and wonder if I’ve been taking too many naps! But no. Think on this: England has been around for well over 1000 years. It is landlocked. It is surrounded by oceans. It has had a global empire now reduced to modest size. Yet it is a world leader in music, art, academic research, and culture. English people are bright and productive. They value life without drenching themselves in the glitter of snobbishness and visible baubles of success. They are down to earth!

Can we honestly say that about our own countrymen? I don’t think so.

Quality of life is a complex of issues. It defines who we are as people – as humans. I’m not at all sure America has done a good job of projecting us as models of excellence in this or any other department of life. Oh, maybe garishness is a model! And selfishness and greed. And wearing stupidity as a badge of honor: gun ownership without safeguards from violence; anti abortion and anti child care mentality; and so many other examples of this.

Quality of life is about developing a person’s potential. It is about self-sustaining happiness, creativity, appreciation of art as expression and communication, and valuing human life in all of its forms.

Now back to stocks. Stock values. China.

How do these relate to quality of life? Exactly? Does a currency value on stocks one day or one week matter to a lifetime of accomplishment and adaptability to productive change? Whose value structure are we using these days?

Oh, for a nap listening to Mozart’s Requiem followed by a good read. Now there’s a value structure that interests me.

And you?

January 12, 2015

Data Trends

How fast do trends take shape? When do we know that a string of data is actually projecting a trend that is upward, down sloping or whatever? Well, mathematicians will tell you if you ask them. Be prepared, however, with a lot of hems and haws. Predicting future numbers is complicated and as empirical as it would seem it really isn't.

Take employment figures reported monthly by the federal government. They attempt to report how many jobs were created and filled during the previous month. Even then the reports are rushed and are often corrected a few weeks later with more accurate information. Then there are the sub reports of this very same data that tries to tell you how many jobs were in government, how many in manufacturing, sales and service industries, and so on. It gets complicated and not all data reported to the government is done with pin point accuracy. So, tread carefully here!

And then there is the whole idea of trend analysis, what math analysis allows for false starts of trends, or micro seasonal data patterns that need to be withdrawn from the larger data study.

For example, fall labor statistics usually show spikes in hiring for the holiday retail season that approaches. Retail outlets hire armies of temporary employees to be sales clerks in crazy busy department stores and shops. Or at least they hope they will be busy! Sometimes they get the numbers right, sometimes not. This past holiday retail season they got it wrong by a large margin. The reason? Well, this isn't science, but there was a continuing trend towards internet purchasing of holiday gifts. This was expected but no one could accurately predict how much this would depress retail store sales.

But they were negatively affected big time. And stores were overstaffed for sales volume that didn't happen. To the extent these stores operated good websites supporting internet sales, they did well, just not at their actual stores.

Another trend is the massive move towards gift cards. Busy people find it difficult to determine exactly what a favorite niece or nephew wants or needs, and so opt for a gift card so the recipients can get exactly what they want without the hassle of returning ill fitting goods or simply miss-matched presents. This trend eats into store sales significantly.

Another data set difficult to calculate in trend analysis: duration of cycles of change. When data reports a surge of new activity – an upward trend – the next question is 'how long will this last'? Micro trends dot sales histories for every product and industry. Only the fool plans on a short upward trend to last. Best to wait and see how this trend will play out. The same is true for micro trends that slope downward on the graph.

Some data move in annual cycles, like real estate residential sales of the past. Still other data move in many cycles throughout the year reacting to many changing elements. Weather is such a variable element that affects sales trends in the retail sector. Interest rates are another variable. International economic growth patterns in major trading partner nations is yet another. So too, currency exchange rates throughout the international economy. We do live in a global community, remember! It does affect us here at home and will continue to do so as the world moves vigorously toward a dynamic, ever-present global economic model. We cannot undo this trend, so best we adapt to it with our eyes and brains wide open!

There is another variable we know about but give little notice to except for minor adaptions and annoyance. That variable is reporting errors. Each of us is fallible. Government is staffed by human beings so fallibility remains a variable factor always. We just learned that the Federal Reserve calculations on real estate residential sales data was reported in error for some years. Years! And yes this had an effect on the industry, banking and interest rates. Decisions are made on all of this data whether good or bad (decisions) or correct or wrong (data).

It is what it is and we have to assume the risk of making decisions based on the data provided to us. It is not done intentionally. And the reports are made in an ocean of other data that we can pull meaning from. Just because one report says one thing doesn't mean we have to trust it. We have eyes, ears and brains capable of our own observations and analysis. We need to rely more on that and school ourselves in what is reasonable and accurate.

Is the world changing? Yes. Is America changing? Yes. Is our neighborhood changing, our industry, our culture? Yes to all of these. We sometimes don't notice the changes quickly because we are living with them up close and personal. But changing they are and trends will change because of the changes.

So, where does that leave us? Right where we always have been, reliant on our own wits and thinking skills. What is a trend? What is a strategy? Are tactics different from strategies? What do words mean, and when do they mean such? When not?

Lots of things to think about. Often we should ask ourselves these questions:

• What business am I really in?
• What business do I really want to be in?
• Do people really want what I have to offer?
• Why do those people want what I have to offer?

The rest will take care of itself if you honestly ask these questions and seek solid answers to them. Be careful! It is easy to pull the wool over our own eyes here! Practice truly seeing the world and its people the way they really are. Then live accordingly.

Not easy, but then you will be bucking trends and making them react to you!

January 11, 2016

Getting to Know You

Besides the old song, the phrase – ‘getting to know you’ – speaks of a process by which each of us lets bits and pieces of ourselves free into the atmosphere for others to capture, see, wonder about and understand us. I observe/hear/feel the bits and pieces let loose by another and that helps me build a ‘picture’ of the other person, a picture that helps me know who the other person really is inside them.

I’m hoping others receive my clues, too. This is a two way street.

At some point two people may choose to engage in conversation to expand their understanding of each other. Good friends do this in stages over the years. Sometimes the process is fast; other times it is very slow. At whatever pace the process does unveil who we are to each other.

We not only know what makes us friends, but we also realize the commitment we have to each other. We can rely on each other. Someone in your family – near and dear to you – dies and who is the first person you turn to for a hug, a tearful sharing of the grief, and calm recollection of memories of the deceased. That friend may actually help you through the process, cooking dinner, watching the kids as you go about the many legal steps now required of you. Compassion, caring, knowing. That’s what friends do for you and with you.

And of course it is naturally returned by you or me when the situation is reversed. We help them and it is so very natural. We don’t even think of the sacrifices involved, the changed schedules, added errands with the car, and house duties. It comes with the territory. It is an honor to do these things for our friend.

Later as we relax, we each know the reward of such friendship. It is deep. It echoes within our being, maybe even our soul. At times such as these we realize how important our life is when it is in relationship with other valued souls. We are not alone. We have support. We are invested in each other’s lives and that makes a house a home, a neighborhood a real community, and a community a treasured place we deeply identify with.

There are those who pooh-pooh this. I know, I know. Cynics abound; until it happens to them and they suddenly get it.

I was talking with a commercial real estate professional the other day. She is working closely with a worn out old city community; not huge, but still a regional power. It has history, and now, with tremendous ethnic diversity, it has importance in piecing together a new future for an important region outside a major US metropolitan area. She is working hard to rebuild excitement in the downtown blocks and bring back businesses long missing from the scene. Office space is what the buildings are now used for, for small and medium companies that have little or no retail role. So people don’t throng the sidewalks to window shop or even better – buy something. Parking is plentiful but it does require leaving the car a few blocks from primary destinations. That’s good. They will have to walk past many other stores and offices and observe the excellent goods and services now available in town.

The very action of parking and walking is an act of involvement with the community. It has social significance. It increases the foot traffic on the sidewalks, and others notice. More people join in and soon a sleepy, down at the heels block or two are revived. This is how communities revive themselves. They bring in small businesses and shops. They create excitement. They present a reason for being downtown. And to walk the streets and shop the shops, and of course, interact with each other.

The social fabric is being rewoven. And the results are palpable.

There are many old and shabby ‘central’ cities in our nation. Many are considered suburban, but that’s OK. It is valuable for such communities to discover their new identities in new commerce, new products, new services and entirely new personalities. The brave new world beckons. It takes nerve, guts and dedication to follow the dream. Besides this suburban location answers the needs of those who don't commute large distances for work, or for those who do commute into this regional hub instead of to the metro center. These commuters have needs as well and they may find them in the renewed downtown.

It is worth it when the community stands firmly on its own two feet, links hands with other supports, and breathes new life into old infrastructure. A community's soul is reverberating again. It tells us of new life in old places.

New life. New people. New traditions and a fresh chapter of history to build.

That is the face of opportunity. And it starts with getting to know you, and you, and you. The we comes naturally.

Now, all together in a rousing chorus – “Getting to Know You, getting to know all about you…..”

January 8, 2015

How Did We Get Here?

The New Year has begun with an unsettling array of issues that mankind simply can’t seem to get right. Here’s a small list of those issues:

• American ranchers in Oregon feel they are owed national lands for grazing by their herds; they are granted access but must pay a nominal fee to use the lands, else the land could be used by all and abused. So they took over a public land reserve with an armed militia and are demanding land ownership to be transferred to the ranchers. Or else. The rest of America’s citizens – all of whom own this land – are expected to do what?
• President Obama takes a stand over runaway gun violence; the majority of Americans support him and his moves to do this. His political enemies immediately state everything he said they would say in opposing his new executive orders. This is not about Obama, or political parties. It is about each of us living together and protecting the innocent from senseless gun violence. If you have a better idea how to manage this, where are your proposals?
• North Korea claims to have tested an H-bomb. They have signed international peace accords giving up testing of such weapons. No confirmation has been made scientifically whether the test actually took place. Still, this failed nation and its suffering peoples attempt to poke a stick in the eye of the world. For what purpose?
• China builds islands in sea lanes off their shore to extend their claim into international waters and then goads world powers to deny them this folly. Is this a badly disguised war cry with which they wish to challenge the world? Bah!
• Russia makes claims that the USA is its enemy and a security risk. America has extended its hand in peace continuously for decades. It is no enemy of Russia unless Russia wants that to be the case. How foolish is this?
• A black man sits in the White House. He is reviled by a large portion of his countrymen. Why? Is this a racial issue in spite of our claims to the contrary? What makes politics so vile and demeaning? Why do we treat public servants in this manner?
• Mental illness is a serious problem for most societies. The best educated societies understand this and have the resources to combat the problem. Yet they don’t; they medicate the patients and set them free to self manage their care and behavior; it results in loss of life and senseless violence. Yet no one steps forward to manage this very human problem.
• Education is the one public service that develops human potential and success for the long term future for the students and society. However, we allow bureaucracy and teacher unions to weigh heavily on the effectiveness of this critical service. Research tells us how to reorganize our efforts but politics steps in the way of meaningful change. Why?
• Sports teams want local municipalities to subsidize their stadiums at huge cost. Why is this even an issue? Public education would benefit enormously from these public dollars. Professional sports is not on par with public education. Fund the schools.
• Private corporations continually benefit from use of public infrastructure including an educated labor force yet they minimize their taxes via loopholes they lobbied for and even stash untold billions outside the borders of the nation claiming they cannot afford the taxes required to repatriate those dollars. Who exactly is seeking subsidies for their operations and why?
• The arts have always had a hard time remaining viable within educational programs. Why? Art and music education have shown to develop the brain and social skills of students in astounding ways. Why would we deny this important ingredient in our public schools?
• Non-profit organizations achieve results where no private dollars are risked. The nation benefits. People benefit. Yet donations to these non-profits are always included on the beggars’ list. Why?

We have much to do in this nation of free people and so called open minds. We celebrate our strengths without realizing our weaknesses. It would appear we need to take responsibility for what we believe and make good things happen.

Such is done by motivated people with strong minds and goodwill. When do we begin?

January 7, 2015

To-Do Lists

It’s 3 am and I lie awake. Moonlight is shining through the transom windows of the bedroom. No need for a night light here! I can make the nightly trek to the bathroom without a flashlight. And back, even after the blinding lights of the vanity. Even the dog raises her head from the bed to watch me safely return to bed. She doesn’t need a night light either.

What’s on the mind at 3 am now that the bladder call has been answered? What to do; what to do with this time at hand. To do? Ah yes, make a to-do list and try to remember it for later when I arise for the day and turn on the computer.

So, what’s on my to-do list today? Here are some:

• Call doctor’s office and arrange renewal of handicapped parking placard; maybe even attempt to apply for a permanent handicapped license plate?
• Call retirement benefits rep and determine once and for all if Rocky can be on my health insurance policy; how much would this cost him, and would it be cheaper than his coverage now? What hoops do we have to jump through to get this done?
• Contact my health insurance company and find out if Silver Sneakers program will work for me locally? [This is a free health club membership for basic elder exercise; paid for by the insurance company.]
• Transfer more working files from the old computer to the new one
• Figure out how Windows 10 works to use these transferred files!
• Figure out how to receive emails with attachments with Windows 10, and then how to save the attachment as working files so I can accomplish something with them!
• Check air pressure in tires of car. They seem a little squishy lately in the cold weather; then how to get more air without paying for it at the gas station? When did they start charging for this?
• Write another blog piece for tomorrow; try and keep at least one on hand so it is not a mad scramble from bed to posting each morning!
• Decide if I should visit the Chamber of Commerce office or not; they promised to help and so far have not lifted a finger to help develop business workshops for small firms in a partnership with SCORE
• Balance checkbook with monthly statement; easy enough to do; just not enough deposits!
• Read more of the book I pulled from the shelf the other day; it’s moving slowly but it is still a good read; don’t give up on it!
• Dust the apartment. It’s looking grody; maybe vacuum, too?
• Encourage Rocky to clean the kitchen; it’s looking more than grody and we are tracking into the other rooms now
• Take a nap when the spirit moves; just accomplish something first!
• Begin tomorrow’s to-do list 

That should work for now. The question is will I accomplish all the items or just a few? How many will be transferred to tomorrow’s list? Oh, this retirement business has its challenges.

I must remember: if things get tough, take a nap.

January 6, 2015