Weighty Issues – Continued

Is Obama an effective President? Is he one of the good guys history will smile upon?

I think the answer is a resounding yes. Here’s why.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact is hugely complex. Its reason for being, however, is even more important. Of course politicians with sound bite mentalities will jump on the trade agreement as a bad deal for unions and special interest industries. My point on the matter is a bit more simple: first, the deal has much to do in balancing international political power between the East and West. The need to do this is a very big deal. The TPP recognizes standards of ethics, intellectual right protocols, and currency valuations. These three areas of international trade are not recognized by China in the main. Russia is another loose cannon on this front. So the TPP balances the playing field by establishing industrial standards, trade standards, and rules of engagement in economics that the other players refuse to recognize. Who do you think will win such a battle?  The TPP is essential in managing this issue.

Who would know this? Who among voters really gets this? In the final analysis will the electorate in America understand and not let TPP shadow their voting behavior?

First off, no, I think the average voter doesn’t even have a clue about his topic. And that’s precisely my point in Friday’s blog post. If TPP is to be discussed by anyone – candidate or not – they’d better be well versed on what the TPP includes and why. The agreement took years to accomplish. It was done in private so the parties involved could explore all the aspects of the negotiations openly and understand them. Yes; they are that complex. And because of that the rest of us must provide room for negotiators to talk, probe, research, understand and ultimately make compromises so the larger issues are addressed fairly and work in a complex agreement.

No politician or pundit ought to hold forth on this issue unless they truly understand it. Poking at it in tiny pieces does not do justice to the issue.

Second, read Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat. Being a citizen of the global community requires us to be responsible, involved and understanding of the many complexities of the world-wide community. We are all players. We are all workers and investors. We are all beneficiaries as well of the global community. So we had better act in concert with all of that.  I think the TPP in the long run will prove we are doing just that. Time will tell. Research will need to be performed to prove the point. But short term ill informed talk is rubbish at this point.

Patience. TPP is too important and too complex to make light of at this moment in history.

Evaluating the historical value of President Obama based on the TPP would be a mistake at this point in time. I think it will prove to be of far flung value for all of us. But we won’t know that for some time yet. To attempt it is courageous and necessary. It is what leaders do; it is what historical Presidents do.

Who has the power among world leaders? Pundits and journalists are saying Putin does because he has the guts to rattle military hardware and shake things up. Obama is third in this ranking because he doesn’t rattle sabers. To many others he seems calm and perhaps a bit detached? 

It would be well for us to consider saber rattling as unnecessary and event foolish. And calm? That is precisely what cool heads do in times of pressure. Keeping cool while considering the issues is a strength, not a weakness. And detached? Too often this behavior is perceived rather than known. Considering options and issues to balance well with one another takes logic and calm. Some mistake this as detached. They would be wrong.

Where is the public sentiment for peace among nations? Are Americans hawks on all things international? Do they believe that might makes right in all cases? Vietnam didn’t prove that way. Neither did Korea. Neither did Iraq. Neither does Afghanistan. And Russia has its own examples of this as well, including Afghanistan.

Power, especially military power, has its limits. It is to be used sparingly and very carefully. It can unleash chaos too horrible to contemplate; just review what has happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. Successful? No! Effective? No! cheap? Decidedly not, in materiel costs AND military lives! Iraq was a war that need not have been. Afghanistan, yes; but then we drained resources from that worthy task to wage a dumb war in Iraq and we lost both nations.

If anyone thinks Iraq and Afghanistan wars are or have been successful, please describe in detail your logic to support this conclusion. The Taliban still rules Afghanistan. ISIS is unleashed throughout the middle east. And Al Qaeda may be a shadow of what it once was but its threads live on in the Taliban and ISIS. The killing continues. The disruption continues. All that was evil was not focused solely on Saddam Hussein. Removing him was an ego bucket list item and none other.

Discussing the relative historical value of Obama to the rest of the Presidential pack of history is easy. Obama is an intelligent, strategic thinker. He is extraordinarily well versed in the US Constitution. He understands governance. He understands policy formation. He understands the give and take of leadership and agreement. The art of compromise.  When pitted against stubborn non-compromisers, who then is the controller of the non-deal? The President or the opposition? Well, the opposition. Republicans have kept congressional power at the obstacle level to that of the White House.

Rather than circumvent it via executive orders as George W Bush did, Obama has resisted that temptation. Very few executive orders have been issued.

Sometimes leadership means letting the opposition make fools of themselves. And that, my friends, is what I think history will conclude for President Obama. He did the right things for the right reasons. And he let the chips fall where they may. While he, of course, continued on the course to get the right things done on many, many fronts.

Yes. I believe Barack Obama will end up being one of America’s most effective presidents in history.

November 9, 2015