Deficit Spending, Patterns of

Throughout American political discussions the mantra of the republicans is that they are the party of fiscal responsibility. I’m about to prick that bubble. It may have been true in the 1950’s and part of the 1960’s but it has rarely been true since that time. Here’s what I’m writing about.

During the last several republican White House administrations, national debt has soared. It did under Nixon, Reagan, George HW Bush, and George W Bush, Soared. Exponentially. In Reagan’s case, what the national debt didn’t absorb, state and local governments did in the form of handed down funding mandates no longer supported by the feds. Thanks a lot, Uncle Ron! In those days our property and state taxes soared to fund the old programs now funded by us, not Uncle Sam, er Ron.

It fell on President Carter to hold the line and bring federal spending under control, but he had only four years to do that. President Clinton made the most headway by actually bringing down the annual deficit and shrinking the national debt at the same time. Unheard of in modern times! And President Obama hasn’t shrunk the national debt, but he has massively reduced the annual deficits, all while repairing the broken mess he inherited upon inauguration. 

Meanwhile deferred maintenance is building at a frightful pace. I speak of national infrastructure that badly needs refurbishing, actual replacement in many areas, and expansion of new infrastructure in most areas. Letting this go to run down and fall apart will only make subsequent funding more complex and much larger. Just like deferred maintenance on your house. Let a faucet drip long enough and a major plumbing problem grows hugely (or is that Yugely?). Same with foundation cracks/settling and roof malfunctions. Both will lead to incredibly costly repairs if left unattended for too long.

Now just imagine bridges, dams, power grids, storm water management systems, water and sewer systems, and the like aging and falling apart. To repair them is a big hit. To replace them unconscionably huge. But that is what is building for our future. We have work to do now, and yesterday, not tomorrow. Tomorrow will be spent figuring out how in the world we will afford all this repair and replacement work. It should be done on a current basis and well planned. Obsolescence is an automatic like all change is. It is plan-able and thus budget worthy.

Congress doing nothing is not saving money; it is costing us money.

Meanwhile they allow other investments in our society to go under funded: public education, research and development at universities and think tanks, space programs and expansion of scientific frontiers. Public health research is another field that is underfunded. And so far we are only scratching the surface of the inner workings of our society in need of investment.

Global economic competition and development of new markets, products and services are all in need of public support if we are to continue to play a major role in world affairs. How much of this is falling by the wayside because congress is unwilling to make key investments in the name of fiscal responsibility?

This is not a responsibility as much as it is a fiscal debacle. Let’s face reality, deregulating the banking and investment industries beginning in 1999 and stretching to 2008 is the underlying cause of the great recession of 2007-2013. The vestiges of that recession remain with us. We are still seeking the ‘new normal’ and a new recession is being talked about before that new normal is secured.

False economy! Congress is playing with fire it does not understand all in the name of politics.

You know, the original Constitutional Convention, were it reconvened today, would make for interesting discussion and history making. The Founding Fathers would shudder to see the mess we have made for ourselves. And all under the conservative aegis of the Republican Party. And of the Christian Conservative Party. A party of church overarching the state. Just what the Founding Fathers wanted, eh?

I doubt that. It would be a serious misreading of American history.

Conservative principles I grew up understanding held that government had a proper role in maintaining order and making sure baseline investment in health and human services (read education, too) was necessary to provide a self-sustaining populus capable of supporting each other and their governance. That seems to have been lost in modern political discussions.

Fiscal responsibility or fiscal folly? I think the writing is on the wall on that subject. Now to turn that around, all we have to do is…

March 8, 2016

Imagine

Imagine the world community. Today. The Middle East is shredding apart – Libya, Syria, Gaza/Palestine, parts of Egypt and of course Iraq. Look north to Pakistan, Afghanistan and several of the other ‘stans’. Include Turkey in the mix of hot spots due to their Kurdish issues and border skirmishes with Syria and now Russia on Syria’s stead. Imagine, too, the Koreas, proximity to China, China’s restricted sea lanes due to building new islands and militarizing them. Russia, of course, is rattling its sabers, tanks and missiles, and especially its war planes flying low all over Europe.

In short, imagine a world desperately unstable. Like it actually is!

Now overlay this situation with the following personalities were they to win the Presidency:

            Donald Trump

            Ted Cruz

            Marco Rubio

            Bernie Sanders

How would each of them react to the world community and its insistence for attention? What message would you – and we – like the world to receive from America? Peace maker? Soother of troubled waters? Builder of collaborations to calm jittery nerves?

Do you imagine any of the four assumed presidents capable of doing any of those things?

Keep your eye focused on international issues, please. Do not dally into domestic affairs just yet. Let’s just aim our attention on international problems and how we hope to manage the numerous crises. Who among the four is most capable of understanding the complexities and delicacy of the issues and interrelationships of those very same issues?

Not one of them is prepared to deal with these matters. I know this in my gut. So do you.

We need cool heads in place to deal with hot issues outside our borders. The world community is a much larger community than it once was. And we know that today. We rely on them for raw materials, talent pools of scientists and engineers and low cost labor. We rely on them for fresh ideas and cultural enrichment. Most of the nations are our friends; some are not. And we can no longer expect anyone to do our bidding. We must play a role like everyone else and be a responsible world citizen.

No longer can America singlehandedly solve the world’s problems. We didn’t in the past either. Anything we accomplished we did so with the cooperation and active participation of friendly nations who agreed with the objectives then. World War I was a world war, not America’s alone. So too World War II. We didn’t win the war. The world community won the war by working together for a future free to be.

Today we face the same upset world with problems and hostilities with roots thousands of years old and roots that have had nothing whatever to do with America. Yet we are thinking we are the peacemakers. I think we are, but just not alone. The world does not see us as The Peacemaker, but now just a cooperative partner in such a journey toward the future.

It is America’s role to understand itself. It is not the world’s role to understand us. We must get along with others, and play nice. If not, we become the bully and the bad guy, not a role many of us are good at.

I doubt Trump can manage such matters. A bully amidst bullies only begets playground fights that can turn tragic at any moment.

Cruz is a hands off guy, focused on domestic issues and ideologically absorbed with conservative ideals. These are not attributes that fit well with international disputes.

Rubio? Now there is a puzzle. He wants to think himself a leader but I don’t get the feeling that he is that yet. I do sense his willingness to follow the lead of others in the republican party hierarchy. Does that make him his own person or someone who belongs to someone else? I don’t want to risk that sort of thing in a delicate condition the world faces today.

And Bernie Sanders, good soul that he is, simply doesn’t have the background or experience to handle such matters. He would not be able to hit the ground running.

Now, Hillary can and would. She’s a pro in the international field. You know that instinctively and factually.

There is far too much at stake today with regard to international affairs. How we get through it all is tricky. But we can do so with the right person in place and with the team ready to go.

Domestically? I’m not so worried. After all, congress seems to have everything under control – doing nothing and not making larger errors. Until a new leader comes along to set that mess aright, I’d sooner keep my eyes aimed on the hot spots that can do us more damage. And that’s beyond our borders, folks. Well beyond our borders.

Let’s get our priorities straight and focus on that for the time being.

March 7, 2016

24/7/365 Communication

We live in an age of rapid communication. And response. Even insistent messaging in which we are often begged for response now! Right this instant. You know how it is. And we observe this behavior on our buses, trains, planes and in restaurants. Yes even at our own dinner tables. Our kids do; we do it. Strangers do it and we laugh but then realize we are guilty as well.

The subject matter of our emails and instant messages? Whether by phone, I-Pad or computer tablet, we are engaged. Many topics are: schedules, help with finding phone numbers, addresses and email addresses for others. Some are emergency messages like: “I’m tied up and can’t pick up the kids at school; can you?” Or: “Don’t have enough food to make dinner; will have to go out or order in. Let me know what you want.”

If you are a tech worker you know that your job is 24/7. If you are in a supervisory or management role in a tech industry, you are on the job 365 unless you are definitively scheduled off the clock. In other industries your contacts may be less insistent or timely, but they are there just the same.

Now picture yourself in a high level staff position in a sensitive, government position. Your contacts are not only insistent but evolving persistently in wide circles of context and importance. Think a Pentagon job, or defense command. Or maybe Secretary of State with global happenings popping up all over all the time. Most often it is not knowable what is important. Everything is important or has the potential to be so.

So you would remain in touch with your organization. Vitally connected. Information flows coming in and out in a constant stream screaming for your attention. Vital attention.

In the burgeoning days of email expansion to hand held devices, it was an overwhelming flow of messages. Ask any Secretary of State before Hillary Clinton. They had the same problem and made the same mistake – not separating routine messaging from classified information. Or personal traffic, for that matter.

In many cases the information became classified later, not at the time. No matter, the information was then sensitive, became more so, and continues as such as we speak. That is the very nature of the job – handling delicate matters of state among many nations simultaneously. Although there is a staff supporting your work, it takes time to coordinate the information flow and reference partners quickly. In time things get sorted out but as they are happening it is a lot more dicey.

Today email communication systems have evolved and so too privacy and security applications. Not then, but now.

Kind of makes you wonder why all of a sudden this figures so huge in Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, doesn’t it? Wonder why these matters were not raised for past Secretary’s of State? I know, they were not running for president, but they were also members of the Republican leadership. And everyone knows that Republicans have short memories about their own errors and omissions. But just watch them work at hunting out issues with Democrats. Now that is another thing.

We ask a lot of our public servants. They are on the clock 24/7/365. That alone can be exhausting. Now add 24/7 jet travel to countless points on the globe. And meetings in every time zone at the same time. Then coordinate all of that with your staff sites in key locations throughout the globe. And now – coordinate all of that with your headquarters staff in Washington DC. Simple?

I’d like to see you try it. And come out of the experience with the energy, foresight and strategic vision of Hillary Clinton asking to do more for her nation. Wow!

March 4, 2016

The Beat Goes On

And on and on! It starts thrumming and continues regardless of weather, power outrages, mass shootings, terrorist attacks around the globe or whatever. Thrum thrum thrum. There it is again! Don't you hear it? Rumbling in the background the beat is discernible and continuous.

Life goes on. Hearts continue beating most of the time. Headaches and upset stomachs recur as well. But we are talking here of rhythms – of life and movement going into the future.

There are many who are too busy to consider these matters. Then there are those who have plenty of time to do the considering and pondering. Some of those are retirees, I guess; but some get paid to to this sort of work. They are analysts of social norms, history, cultural change and what not. They are political scientists, too. Pundits and writers. News anchors and copy writers for news anchors. Well, enough of that. There are many people who do serious thinking on these matters and I wanted to spend just a little time thinking about them and their work.

Marketers. They study the life pulse of a society. They do this to discover market niches for products and services their clients are seeking. Then too, there are market researchers who are trying to identify the emerging needs, emerging wants, emerging trends of pleasure and function and technology. What is possible now is much different than what was possible ten years ago, or even 10 weeks ago!

We are changing. Always. Forever and ever, amen. It is life as we know it, and it is life as we try often to ignore.

Some of us thrive on change. Others not so well. Those people often avoid change and argue against attempts to make change happen. In their town or on their block they abjure change. Some of the change is good: lessened traffic, cleaner air, water and soil; better government; less costly public works; new schools and shopping districts; maybe a new job center or two serving business communities in the area.

Yes, some change is good. Most of it is adaptable as well. We can change how we live, how we think, how we react to different things. Change gives us fresh ways of thinking and feeling. It also unlocks creativity from deep within. We are different because our environment is different.  We are stretched and become more of what we can be. We just don't know what that is at the moment.

Maybe that's what makes it scary. We are not in control of change around us or change within us.

That may be scary on the one hand, but it is also exciting on the other hand. The give and take, ebb and flow of life, goes on. With a rhythm similar to a beat. It is not automatic what it will be, or even the rhythm, but it is automatic that it will happen. What will the change be like? What will it do for the quality of my life? Anything? Everything? One can imagine and hope.

One thing is true about change: it is a constant in our life and that alone keeps us fresh.

A blessing in our lives. Not something to be afraid of. No; it is something to be anticipated and cherished.

March 3, 2016

Super Tuesday 2016

For those unfamiliar with American democracy, every four years we elect a person to be the President of the USA. That person can only serve a maximum of two terms of four years each. He or she must first win the election for the first term, and then four years later re-run for the same position and hope to be retained in office. It is not a slam dunk; many presidents have served only one term when they had hoped to fill two terms. Mr. Obama won two consecutive campaigns for President and is serving his last year of eight currently.

So we are in the election cycle, or campaign cycle, to elect a new president. For many years, however, the election cycle has been almost non-stop. That means that no sooner has one campaign ended when someone, some hopeful for the office of president, begins to campaign for the job. The election cycle is running nearly four years long! 

Those of us living through it find it ugly. If you are not American you would probably find it interesting at some point, but soon thereafter tire of it all and also find it ugly. Imagine hiring a new person to your staff and immediately following re-open the search for a replacement hire! It is unkind and rude to the max. Same here; Obama was barely inaugurated to his first term when republicans began the campaign to oust him from office and meanwhile bedevil his every effort to frustrate and make him ineffective.

Yes, it has been a messy eight years or nearly so. Meantime, however, much has been accomplished that his opposition do not wish to admit. First, he stabilized the military approach to the War on Terror. Second he kept the nation safe from terrorists. Third, he stabilized financial markets and rebuilt the platform of banking and investing so people regained their trust and faith in the economy. That was no mean feat; the economy was down and out on the verge of major collapse. Some thought the Big Dark Abyss was inevitable. The country was frightened. And so too the world! Central national banks around the globe frantically worked to stabilize their currencies and economies hoping America’s efforts would sustain them as well.

And those concerted efforts paid off. Years later we are still rebuilding the banking industry, the investment industry, and the mortgage industry. Real estate markets have firmed but the basics are nowhere near the norm of the past. New norms are being defined as we think of it, and no one knows where the norm will end up. The road has been long; it stretches before us remaining miles to go before we reach an end. Even so there are upset markets today that threaten to upset yet again the delicate equilibrium of the economy. The new norms may be redefined even before the current developing ones are completed.

Yes, economic reality is both that delicate and variable.

Economics is, after all is said and done, a social science, not an empirical science like math or physics. Those sciences are based on real facts that exist independent of people and their psychological mien. Economics relies solely on human behavior as it reacts to the economic environment in which those humans find themselves. All of those people have different mindsets, and they have different human needs both emotionally and financially. In that endless environment of possibilities and probabilities the lone consumer travels a maze of economic decisions and actions. When hundreds of millions of people in one region, or billions over the entire globe, react to economic realities, the results are enormously variable. So much so that predicting end results is impossible.

Add to this a broad mix of social policy, problems and challenges and you begin to realize how complex the job of president is. Especially in America.

That complexity generates different opinions and attitudes. Those, in turn, yield political argument and ideology. Hence political thought and behavior takes root and unease and distrust soon follow.

This makes for a never ending political season.

But today is Super Tuesday when twelve states hold their primary elections (or caucuses) to help winnow down the number of candidates likely to continue chasing their dreams of being president. Today we will learn if voters overwhelming support Trump or Hillary in their respective parties. If they do then the other candidates will eventually fade away until their parties make their selection of final candidates this summer. Until then, however, primary elections will be held in all of the states to steer the way toward the party conventions.

As expected the voting results will likely end the campaigns for Carson, Kasich and any other hangers on. Rubio and Cruz will each claim strength to proceed and challenge Trump. Cruz, however, won enough delegates to continue his race against Trump. Rubio didn't do well as Cruz. So Trump and Cruz will likely remain candidates for the coming weeks. Rubio will likely fall by the wayside sooner rather than later. 

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton did well winning seven states to Bernie's four. Her delegate lead, however is commanding. Sanders, however, will show enough strength to cement his rhetoric and issues so the party and Hillary will need to accommodate them in some manner.

Tonight the political analysts will be busy with voting results and turn them into predictions for the next few weeks.

There is a hitch, however. And it is this: Trump is not the Republican Party Leaders' guy. They will do everything possible to depose him from winning the nomination of the party. They might win this battle; but they could easily lose it as well. If the latter, they will attempt to find a third party candidate – Bloomberg? – to support and destroy Trump’s viability. They won’t win the election in most probability; but they will avoid encamping Trump in the White House. That job is most likely going to be Hillary’s.

Super Tuesday has been many things in the past. This year, however, it has actually lost its meaning.  Stay tuned and see if you agree with me by November!

March 2, 2015 

Allure: Academy Awards

Allure. That’s what it is. Like a magnet we are drawn toward the Academy Awards show. Maybe it is fueled by memories of years gone by when Sunday evening broadcasts of the show were so brightening of our lives. When I was a kid the glamour caught my attention. So many beautiful women and handsome men! So much fancy dress and glitter. Somehow the entire evening expanded into something other than it was. Personalities were magically before us in full view and their buoyant comments and brief interviews were often adorable or hilarious. I recall Shirley McLain’s appearances when she was quite young. Her hair was messy and tossed and a reporter asked her how she had done her hair and she responded – “with an eggbeater!” And of course we laughed hysterically. The entire house rocked with glee. We liked Shirley then and now.

But then it seemed fun and entertaining. The year Ellen DeGeneres hosted it was very entertaining. No one took themselves too seriously. But then we have this year’s showcase of talent. A turbulent controversy centered on Academy racism or its own turbid coolness to the subject, the topic was front and center the entire evening.

Chris Rock hosted and skewered the industry and its denizens for the controversy. Perhaps his efforts will make a difference, perhaps not. I hope they do because the Academy is the epitome of America’s culture troves and it should be open to all her people and their talents and art. Put your life on the line, your heart and soul on the line, and let the world be the judge whether it is art and beauty and grist of excellence. There are many artists of color in the Academy to not have one show up on award night as a nominee. None. What a shame.

So we dutifully began watching the show to catch Chris Rock and remained for another 45 minutes. With waning interest we realized we were doing the crossword, playing solitaire on the computer and listening haphazardly to the awards show. So at 8:15 we turned it off and went to bed. Totally unfazed by the show and its lackluster attraction.

The allure was lost because the whole of our talents were moved to an unseen backroom.

The surprise winners of Mad Max pretty much sums it up for us. Really? Mad Max. This show is art and craft and a beacon of excellence for America?

I think not. The lowest common denominators are showing their faces again, America. It’s time to raise our standards. We should begin with the Republican Party’s candidates and campaign standards. Yes, that would be a wonderful start. At least we now can understand how they slipped so badly. After all the glitter of the Academy Awards has appeal to all sorts of people!

March 1, 2016

Up and Down Spring

I know it is coming. Spring is just around the corner. One day it is warm and the next cool. Rain one morning, thunderstorms late in the day and snow the next dawn as we awake. By evening the snow is gone and early spring flowers are pushing up through the soil barely. But they are there and daring to peek out at the hoped for warmth of spring.

So do we all.

This morning, Sunday, it is 40 degrees as we set off for church at 7:30; after church driving home it was 57 degrees. The high is forecast for 62 or higher. We will change clothes, have a great breakfast, and if we do not succumb to a late morning nap (!) we will take a ride into the country, something we haven’t done for many, many months.

I like to view the vistas of fertile but hibernating farm fields. In a few short weeks planting will be underway, and shortly thereafter small green shoots will break forth turning the brown earth softly toward a green tint. Spring will then be official and the great fertility of Illinois farm soils will begin the great crop life of corn, soybean and other crops needed to feed herds of hogs, cattle and dairy cows.

In summer we will experience the bounty somewhat but mainly in fall the harvest will be great. So a ride today at the end of February is to see the hazy blue skies hovering over the sleeping giant of awakening earth. It is something to behold. Many do not understand my excitement on days such as these.

Like spring our nation is stirring as well. We are discussing our future and what it should be like and how to gain access to it. We know we have the talents and skills to make good things happen but we also are aware that burdens lie in obstruction to realizing the gains so many need and deserve.

The argument most commonly heard is – “Get government and its regulations out of the way and progress will be evident!”

I don’t hold with that point of view. I think regulations have a role to play in our complicated society. Greed and manipulation by the power hungry among us need regulations to stem their natural instincts to take advantage of others. Left unchecked their greed will pummel the rest of us.

Food and drug regulations protect the purity and healthiness of our food supply and medicines. Snake oil salesmen may still exist but their job is much more difficult in this day and age to sell junk medicine to the public and take advantage of them. Although there are failures in this area, just imagine how many more failures there would be if no regulations existed to protect us?

Same with food purity, meat inspections and grading of crop quality. People would find ways to cheat others. It is the way of the world here at home and abroad. We may hope for goodness from each person but we know that without regulation, inspection and enforcement people disappoint us with their faulty take on ethics and honesty. It is what it is and thank God we have rules and regulations to protect us.

Need we even go into details about the financial system meltdown and mortgage debacle helped along by relaxation of banking regulations and investment industry safeguards? I think not; the memories from 2007 to today are so much with us!

And with education. What would it be like if only private institutions educated our kids? Do you honestly think everyone would be treated equally and gain access to the highest level of education to match their abilities?  I sincerely doubt that. Look at all the proprietary schools – colleges – and even universities that are private and selling degrees for all kinds of short term technical jobs. Do these students really gain a career from such schools? Do they learn how to learn so they can adapt to a changing career, changing technology and much broader concerns? Is all education vocational?

I think it isn’t nor should it be. Yes we need skills and talents taught to develop trades and abilities that are marketable within our employment circles. But we also need people educated to what is likely to develop over time that will challenge us to adapt much more fully to an unfolding world of experience and career. Learning how to learn is the real objective of education but too many institutions fail to do so. This leaves students stranded over time in useless, out of sync jobs.

Government can, does and should address this issue. Our state universities are tasked with this role. Many people do not understand the role but they benefit from it nonetheless as time marches on. Regulation, management, standard setting – these are the tasks that are thankless but necessary. Cutting budgets for such programs only hinders the effectiveness of government, and opens us all to disasters.

Political campaigns make life too simple. It isn’t. That’s why there are so many layers of issues, problems and solutions in need of public attention. Candidates for public office that don’t address this complexity do dishonor to the electoral process.

It wouldn’t hurt to add a huge dose of civility to this process as well! Oh, when will the November elections get here? Oh right; we are just transitioning from winter to the hoped for spring. November is fall and Thanksgiving time. Maybe that’s why Thanksgiving comes when it does? Whatever. I’ll be thankful for the campaigns being silenced by then!

February 29, 2016