Super Tuesday 2016

For those unfamiliar with American democracy, every four years we elect a person to be the President of the USA. That person can only serve a maximum of two terms of four years each. He or she must first win the election for the first term, and then four years later re-run for the same position and hope to be retained in office. It is not a slam dunk; many presidents have served only one term when they had hoped to fill two terms. Mr. Obama won two consecutive campaigns for President and is serving his last year of eight currently.

So we are in the election cycle, or campaign cycle, to elect a new president. For many years, however, the election cycle has been almost non-stop. That means that no sooner has one campaign ended when someone, some hopeful for the office of president, begins to campaign for the job. The election cycle is running nearly four years long! 

Those of us living through it find it ugly. If you are not American you would probably find it interesting at some point, but soon thereafter tire of it all and also find it ugly. Imagine hiring a new person to your staff and immediately following re-open the search for a replacement hire! It is unkind and rude to the max. Same here; Obama was barely inaugurated to his first term when republicans began the campaign to oust him from office and meanwhile bedevil his every effort to frustrate and make him ineffective.

Yes, it has been a messy eight years or nearly so. Meantime, however, much has been accomplished that his opposition do not wish to admit. First, he stabilized the military approach to the War on Terror. Second he kept the nation safe from terrorists. Third, he stabilized financial markets and rebuilt the platform of banking and investing so people regained their trust and faith in the economy. That was no mean feat; the economy was down and out on the verge of major collapse. Some thought the Big Dark Abyss was inevitable. The country was frightened. And so too the world! Central national banks around the globe frantically worked to stabilize their currencies and economies hoping America’s efforts would sustain them as well.

And those concerted efforts paid off. Years later we are still rebuilding the banking industry, the investment industry, and the mortgage industry. Real estate markets have firmed but the basics are nowhere near the norm of the past. New norms are being defined as we think of it, and no one knows where the norm will end up. The road has been long; it stretches before us remaining miles to go before we reach an end. Even so there are upset markets today that threaten to upset yet again the delicate equilibrium of the economy. The new norms may be redefined even before the current developing ones are completed.

Yes, economic reality is both that delicate and variable.

Economics is, after all is said and done, a social science, not an empirical science like math or physics. Those sciences are based on real facts that exist independent of people and their psychological mien. Economics relies solely on human behavior as it reacts to the economic environment in which those humans find themselves. All of those people have different mindsets, and they have different human needs both emotionally and financially. In that endless environment of possibilities and probabilities the lone consumer travels a maze of economic decisions and actions. When hundreds of millions of people in one region, or billions over the entire globe, react to economic realities, the results are enormously variable. So much so that predicting end results is impossible.

Add to this a broad mix of social policy, problems and challenges and you begin to realize how complex the job of president is. Especially in America.

That complexity generates different opinions and attitudes. Those, in turn, yield political argument and ideology. Hence political thought and behavior takes root and unease and distrust soon follow.

This makes for a never ending political season.

But today is Super Tuesday when twelve states hold their primary elections (or caucuses) to help winnow down the number of candidates likely to continue chasing their dreams of being president. Today we will learn if voters overwhelming support Trump or Hillary in their respective parties. If they do then the other candidates will eventually fade away until their parties make their selection of final candidates this summer. Until then, however, primary elections will be held in all of the states to steer the way toward the party conventions.

As expected the voting results will likely end the campaigns for Carson, Kasich and any other hangers on. Rubio and Cruz will each claim strength to proceed and challenge Trump. Cruz, however, won enough delegates to continue his race against Trump. Rubio didn't do well as Cruz. So Trump and Cruz will likely remain candidates for the coming weeks. Rubio will likely fall by the wayside sooner rather than later. 

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton did well winning seven states to Bernie's four. Her delegate lead, however is commanding. Sanders, however, will show enough strength to cement his rhetoric and issues so the party and Hillary will need to accommodate them in some manner.

Tonight the political analysts will be busy with voting results and turn them into predictions for the next few weeks.

There is a hitch, however. And it is this: Trump is not the Republican Party Leaders' guy. They will do everything possible to depose him from winning the nomination of the party. They might win this battle; but they could easily lose it as well. If the latter, they will attempt to find a third party candidate – Bloomberg? – to support and destroy Trump’s viability. They won’t win the election in most probability; but they will avoid encamping Trump in the White House. That job is most likely going to be Hillary’s.

Super Tuesday has been many things in the past. This year, however, it has actually lost its meaning.  Stay tuned and see if you agree with me by November!

March 2, 2015