Hope -- Future

Economic indicators are rising. Unemployment was first driven by marginal industries in older technologies back in 2007, and then spread to larger manufacturers as housing markets collapsed in 2008 and 2009. As the mortgage market imploded it took housing sales along with it. And the housing market new and old. Then the recession was on for the long term.

As unemployment increased throughout many segments of the economy, service industry jobs began to disappear. Then as tax revenues began to shrivel local governments trimmed jobs, teachers were laid off, and the once stable local/township/county government employers began wholesale reductions. This spread to states. And the federal government as well.

The first wave of unemployment was in the private job sector. Then the government/public sector joined in and unemployment topped nearly 11%.

Unemployment now is dropping. Although there are badly injured regions and cities still suffering major joblessness, private employers are leading the economy back to growth. National unemployment is still high at 8.1% overall. But this figure will begin to decline as tax collections stabilize at the local and state levels. When that happens, government employment data will stabilize as well and probably begin a return to growth, maybe within the next 12 to 14 months.

In short, the national nightmare is seeing the light of dawn. We are not home yet with a vibrant economy, but the signs are there that it is beginning to come back.

Two topics need to be addressed. The first is obsolete jobs that will not return. The second,  jobs being created are on the cutting edge. This is very much in its infancy and indicates employers are reinvesting in their future.

Let’s go back to that first topic – job obsolescence.  One of the reasons unemployment was so low for such a long time is due to productivity gains. New technology and the adoption of it in communications, organizational structure, and manufacturing allowed a much smaller workforce to do the work of the laid off staff. Second, smaller staffs overworked remaining staff anxious to maintain their employment. Staff burnout however became evident and a return to restructuring and re-staffing emerged slowly. Meanwhile, whole product lines and markets collapsed as newer technology revolutionized who wanted what, when and where. New industries began to spring up.

Just scan the hospitality industry – business travel can be avoided by Skype-ing, emailing, conference calling and many other ways of reorganizing collaboration and cooperation. Adoption of new technology has changed the way we think, the process by which we invent. We are moving forward into the future. This necessarily causes upset in the industries of yesteryear. Employment patterns did shift and will continue to shift.

If you are unemployed or underemployed, or in doubt about the future of your present job, you may learn within the next 6 to 12 months that your past career is gone for good and you need to morph into something new. It may be vastly different, or only slightly. Or you may be employed in a ‘bridge’ job between the old and new. Be alert to your true status. It may be time to make major changes, go back to school, or seek retraining with your employer.

I think that many of us assumed that this recession was cyclical. It wasn’t. Data is now showing that this was a structural recession. We are doing things differently. We are making different things and services. We are adapting to a new world. Finally!  Realizing this fundamental fact is the first step in returning to a healthy, growing economy.

The second topic is creation of cutting edge jobs. This will take time as industry reinvests in the emerging technologies and international markets. America has most often been an exporter of innovation and it must return to it to regain strength in global markets. But to do this our citizens need to understand this as well and prepare for the changes. Educational institutions will need to assist in this process. Many already are. The winds of change are among us and growing in strength. That is a very good thing.

We’ve been talking about the future here. We are moving into it. It will be done. How well is another matter.

We are engaged in a debilitating political season of cyclical elections. This is the season where candidates posture to earn votes. They do this by not talking about issues, but fears. They play word games to cast one candidate in deep doubt as to abilities, while not presenting programs that will serve the needs of the country or region. They lay blame for conditions without any support as to why the conditions came about in the first place. They throw around figures and opinions as facts without any basis.

It is time to focus on the issues we need to repair: education, economic long-term future, and adoption of innovation. We can do this by ignoring political parties. We can do this by focusing on what’s good for our communities in real terms, not philosophical ones. And we can do this by asking candidates to speak about ideas that matter; these include those ideas that will guide us through the new future, not the old past.

Using the previous paragraph has a litmus test for politicians may just show each of us who is the leader and who is not. That should make our choices easier to make in the voting booth.

March 1, 2012