Economy Spring 2015

So, the stock markets are up and down. That’s normal, you say? Well yes and no. today’s markets are up wildly and down scarily. Huge swings. Sometimes hundreds of points in a day. Commonly only 100 to 150 points daily. The commonality of these swings is so frequent that it has become a ‘new normal’.

Well, in my humble opinion, it ought not be normal.

I’ve shared my opinion on these pages many times in the past 3+ years. The economy is not well. It has not been well since the 1990’s. The first decade of 2000 was dicey at best but demonic by 2010.

Rampant unemployment was the outward statistic that gave us all pause. But the stubbornness of unemployment took our breath away. We were ensconced in a prolonged battle of unemployment that gave us a clear view of something entirely different.

We were witness to an economic era of mighty change. Not all was good change. Much of it was destructive – careers wiped out with no clear cut options; banking and financial institutions with old roles eliminated and new ones ill-defined; manufacturing increasingly robotic and non-human; off shore banking expanded; off short manufacturing exploded; nano manufacturing crept on the scene. And much much more became very different.

Housing markets collapsed. Housing models moved to the precipice of the great abyss. These were dire times in the real estate markets and businesses. So too in auto manufacturing and sales.

There were bright spots, mostly in technology. But the mammoth manufacturing engine around the globe sputtered and nearly died. It has more life in it currently, but it is a bare whisper of what it once was.

Service sector employment grew. But how does one grow productivity in such a sector? Robots can do only so much. And humans have been disregarded and discarded from the formula.

Yes, recovery of our economy has not been evident. Upward ticks in some statistics have been joyfully proclaimed as the heralding of a new era. Only it sputters and dies.

Today, June, 2015, we await happy data that will make us feel good if for only a few seconds. But those bits and pieces do not fuel the reality of a recovered economy.

We have much to do if we are going to re-employ our peoples in healthy careers of long lasting value and promise. We must focus on what is happening so we can move on to the new era that has not yet been defined.

Not yet been defined. I keep saying this and hoping otherwise. But time has proven me right so far. We do not know what our economic era is. We cannot characterize it properly so we can build upon it. We continue to scratch our heads, shift policy in the hope something will work, and finally blame our conditions on other people and politicians without really accomplishing anything worthwhile.

It is not time to blame but rather to understand. What is going on? Do we really understand it? What can we do differently that would improve on our situation? What assets and resources will we need to work our way out of this conundrum and into a bright new future.

We can do this. We have proven so for hundreds of years. We have the brainpower and the resolve to do this. Why, then, are we so flummoxed this time around?

Perhaps it is because never before have we faced such an elemental collapse of what was normal and the need to invent so much new normal all at one time. But it is true, isn’t it?

We are at a turning point only we don’t have a clue how to make the turn. We simply hope.

Well folks, hope won’t get us through this mess this time. Resolve and hard work will.

Here’s a start on what and how to make it happen:

1. Damn the political parties; move them out of our way
2. Empower government agencies to enlist researchers to discover a full range of options to pursue.
3. Insist community colleges focus on continuing education for adult students with the objective of helping those students re-equip themselves to shift to new careers
4. Charter universities with the task of not just teaching, but research and development of technologies, social sciences, and economic models that actually serve the needs of mankind while not enslaving it
5. Primary and secondary education models be replaced with totally new approaches that provide teachers the power to produce results that are student based and life skill empowering
6. Energy resources that are totally new and replace old forms of energy entirely
7. Replace/maintain all public infrastructure so it serves the people and their systems more than adequately; this is the base upon which all new eras will be built
8. Remove campaign finances from the electoral process. No donations. All public funding on formula budgets based on population and district sizing
9. Spend more time defining quality of life issues and nurturing their acquisition throughout our population
10. Encourage personal responsibility in all matters of our society.

I said it was a start. This is not the end-all solution. But it is a start in the right direction. The first step is the hardest. Politicians are at the very base of our problems. They helped create the problems. They refused to address the problems. They continue to scratch their heads over the issues they helped create. So it is time they were removed from the equation. There are better management models. We simply must explore which ones are likely to work at a time like this.

Wherever you are, whatever you do, do it well in place and work for a better tomorrow. Help bring new ideas forward so that tomorrow holds the most promise. Meanwhile, study your life changes so you are prepared for whatever happens.

Now, take a breath. This year’s economy has plenty of challenge for all of us.

June 3, 2015