What’s Ripe for Innovation?

Office space structures: the norm was a rabbit warren of offices, or large assemblage of desks in a work pool space, or a sea of cubicles. None of these environments kept co-workers safe from flu, colds or viruses, certainly not pandemics. Individual offices provided more protection, but even they relied on personal connections, visits, drop-by-the-door messages, and delivery of interoffice mail and documents. Working from home was the first line of defense during the COVID-19 pandemic. Still is. And it will likely remain in some form or other.

With this development, office buildings became vertical ghost towns. Their elevator lobbies and cars became virus central. So, too, their halls and cafeterias, coffee shops and what all. Abandoning the office building model of commerce may be something that lasts, or it will undergo a monumental change.

Downtown districts: with vacated office structures, downtown commercial districts also became ghost towns. Of what purpose did they become in the interim? For a short time, they became the mecca of entertainment sites and museums, libraries and other public institutions. But not for long. Soon these institutions were shut down to contain viral spreads. With a surge in residential buildings in downtowns, people were still present there. They just didn’t commute to work anymore but remained home at their computer desks and phones. In fact, living downtown where work once was, became a burden as restaurants and bars shut down. Already sparse grocery outlets were struggling to keep their doors open with lighter customer traffic. Soon, however, those grocers perked up as local residents relied on them for breakfast, lunch AND dinner.

What will become then, of downtown districts if office buildings do not return to use? Will public institutions such as banks, libraries, museums, art galleries, entertainment venues and the like be enough to maintain the infrastructure of a modern urban center? Much doubt in that. Much doubt.

Public transportation: with commuting patterns changing what will become of public transportation networks? Certainly, their origins and destinations will change greatly. That demands a change in network size, design and interconnections. But that only addresses the larger infrastructure and use of it. The point of lost ridership is the cause – spread of virus and other illnesses. If public transportation was shunned during the time of pandemic, will trust return to previous traffic levels to support public transportation systems? Most likely not. Besides, the economics of public transportation was already shaky. Without public subsidies ridership costs may very well become grossly unaffordable to individual riders.

Having said that, if the downtown districts reduce their traffic lure, then ridership will decline even more making the systems unaffordable without huge subsidies.

Personal transportation: the private auto remains a bubble of health safety. However, one must ask from where to where will the auto be used? If not to work or major local attractions, what will be the effect on auto design? Smaller size? Shorter range? More electric propulsion? Fewer muscle cars? Less traffic on area roads? Less private auto ownership? More leasing or short term rental?

These elements are many and far reaching. Surely the private auto is at risk. In the future, personal transportation will be the focus and not the vehicle itself. This may be a stunner of a social change for which we are unprepared.

That’s enough for one day’s post. Let’s pick this up tomorrow.

December 15, 2020