With the apparent ascendancy of Donald Trump as its
presidential nominee, the Republican Party is in the midst of an obvious
makeover. The party elders and leaders do not want Trump involved in their
party, let alone their headliner candidate! But they are in this situation
because they allowed it to happen.
On so many levels this is true. The problem for them: the process has been happening for over 30 years. They lost sight of this makeover
while it was happening under their very noses. There are those who predicted
this in one fashion or another. Those comments, however, fell on deaf ears.
Until 2016 such were ignored. Now the results are in and here is how it is
likely to play out.
First, there is still a possibility that the Republican
Convention in Cleveland
later this summer will be contested, rules changed, and a coup staged by party leaders to remove Trump from the ballot and
replace him with someone more palatable. But here’s the probable outcome of that move: anarchy within the party worse than is now
imagined. The likely result will be a schism and the party splitting
into two factions. Those will most likely move on to two separate political
parties.
One party will be what the party elders envision – The
Conservative Party of America. The second party will be the Republican Party as
envisioned by Abraham Lincoln – a party of, for and by the people. This party will be led in name only by Trump or maybe not.
This Republican Party will lose elections until it
regains a sense of middle of the road politics. Then it will begin to win
elections and gain footing within the American electoral process. All after Trump leaves the scene.
Meanwhile the Conservative Party of America will carom about
the American cultural experience and make major miscalculations on the temper
of the American people. While this is going on (remember the Republican Party
is still gaining a foothold and losing elections) the Democrats will be winning
elections. This is the nature of a political system comprised of three or more
parties. It is a parliamentary political structure. Two parties may displace
the third if they agree and compromise the sharing of power; if not, the third
party wins elections. And America
is not familiar with this type of politics so Democrats will win until the
Conservative and Republican Parties figure it out.
Here’s the primary point to remember in all of this: there
are conservative, liberal and middle of the road ideologies at work in America . It is
best to remember each of those divides and understand them. There are not two
ideologies. Three. Get it? Somehow the republicans of old forgot that maxim and
became confused and muddled.
This type of non-leadership and intellectual dullness has
created the Donald Trump phenomenon. Yes; it is a disaster. No; he will not win
the White House.
It is only a guess what Congress will do in this situation
as it transitions to the future. It can choose to remain stuck in two-party
mode or adopt the three-party reality and move on.
Best they lay their plans now. Our nation can ill afford
another 8 years of congressional obstruction. The military deserves better than
that. So do our international allies. So does the economy, the Federal Reserve,
and the people of this great nation.
We are a great nation. We just have trouble adapting to
change in spite of our self proclaimed leadership of change. How did we get to
this point? By ignoring major facts and reality. We pretended things were
better than they were and that definitions of old terms meant something other
than what they were.
Lazy thinking and assuming someone else will do your work
for you will lead to where we are. The problems reside throughout our society
and in all political corners of both parties – er, now three.
We will get through this mess. 2017 will dawn and a new
Democratic President will be inaugurated. Then four years will follow in which
all political leaders will learn to cope with a new reality. A world of
compromise lies ahead. May we be up to this heady task!
May 9, 2016
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