Cool Putin?

One of the reasons I took a short breather just before Thanksgiving, was the fast pace of news items – Paris terrorist attack, Mali attack, attacks in Nigeria, ISIS threats world wide, the Russian fighter plane shot down by Turkey as it violated their airspace, Russia’s reaction to that, French President Hollande visiting Obama, and then Putin, and now a Planned Parenthood office attacked (again) in Colorado Springs.  Lots of violence. Lots of unsettled issues.

Meanwhile, the 2016 American Presidential Campaign goes on and on with about 20 candidates all blithering about issues of varying consequence. Not very many ideas expressed on how to solve problems, just talk about them, expand upon them, blame someone or other for them, and so on.

In other words, just more of the same old shit being kicked around by the same old shit kickers.

I don’t know about you, but I’m running low on spirit these days to tackle some of these issues with a fresh face or fresh thought, for that matter.

Take Putin. I think he has truly worn out his welcome in all capitals of the global community. Perhaps Syria welcomes him yet because Assad sees Putin as his protector at least for a while. Iran welcomes Putin because he is buying their weapons and shipping them to Syria. For the time being Iran and Syria are about it for friendly nations to Russia.

My reading of the tea leaves is that Putin is on borrowed time. He claims economic sanctions against Turkey for shooting down his plane, but the sanctions are empty. He needs Turkey’s imports more than Turkey needs the cash from trade. Furthermore, shipping missiles to Syria to threaten Turkey is an empty threat. Russia’s plane was indeed in Turkish air space and he knows it. He bluffs his way out of the argument unsuccessfully. Plus his missiles take more of his troops, more of his equipment, and much more of his ever dwindling hoard of cash. Financially, Putin is running on empty.

His military moves strike me as last stabs in the dark to make the world fear him. But there is nothing to fear but shadow. Putin knows that Russia and her people will lose much more than anyone else if a real war breaks out in the Middle East region with Russia as the prime antagonist. Additionally, his allies are paper tigers; don’t forget that Russia provided the military weaponry to its allies in the past. They are as broke as he, and there are no new weapons coming down the road, either.

NATO will not allow Putin any more room to maneuver without real consequence. Neither will the UN. Or Europe. No, Putin is near the end of his own tether. All he has is posturing left to work with.

Now there is a simpler way for him to get out of this fix. He can’t go forward without being slammed and beaten by a host of nations protecting the Middle East and Turkey. And Europe. He knows this. And such a campaign would cost him money he does not have.

No, the real solution is to join efforts with anti-ISIS nations and solve the ISIS problem once and for all in both Syria and Iraq. Then, when peace is restored, he captains the negotiations to remove Assad and make a home for him somewhere out of the region.

This solution builds peace, proves to the world that it can coordinate and collaborate against a common enemy (ISIS) and focuses attention on productive matters that will shore up weak economies and build toward a much sounder financial and diplomatic future.

Part of the underlying problem throughout the world is energy supplies. There will always be a market for oil, just not as a primary energy source. In the future we will replace the oil standard for energy. All nations can participate in this goal. All will benefit from the peace that will develop. The Middle Eastern oil markets will no longer provide the source of tension for war in the region.

Religious strife will always fuel disagreements and culture upsets. But this need not be as serious as it appears today as the source of terrorism.  No, religion is not the source of terrorism; money and power are. Money and power come directly from the oil fields and the drug industry (cocaine and heroin). The profits are fantastic and create the life or death allure. With that comes national pride and regional wars of hegemony.

Even Russia would benefit from redefining the critical issues in this manner. And Putin knows it. He has much to barter with to gain a stronger economic hand. All it takes is cooperation.

Putin, are you listening? Are you giving this some thought?

December 2, 2015