I’m not referring to false positive test results for new drugs or vaccines. I’m referring to the false hopes expressed by many investors as they continue to hype a skittish stock market. And oil prices. And food.
I understand the current concerns about the pandemic and quarantine. But that is our reality to live in for the time being. Exiting this reality will be done in phases as society tests the sustainability of leaving the quarantine behind.
All of this is expected. All of this takes time. And our patience.
Meanwhile, gas pump prices are rising on the rising price of crude oil barrel prices. But those are inflated investor numbers. The pump price for gas never fell to appropriate lows while crude was priced below $15 a barrel. The current $25 price is still low. Yet pump prices just jumped to $2.19. It is not fair or supported. The pump price should be around $1.25 or 1.30.
Thirty-three and a half million (MILLION) workers have applied for unemployment in the last seven weeks. 21% of the workforce is idle. Let those numbers sink in. Now tell me the oil glut will soon be over.
As the economy slowly comes back to work in phases once adequate virus testing is available, economic progress will be measured slowly. Five years from now we should be cooking very nicely. I get that future prices will be better than they are today, but the future still has to unfold.
The stock market, however, is zipping up and down like a whirling dervish. Weird and unsustainable. Cooler heads must prevail. Take deep breaths and invest logically with long-term visions firmly understood.
There is plenty of food available for the American public. In fact, we have an embarrassing overproduction of food. The current problem is re-scaling the distribution system so it gets to the places where demand can be satisfied. The production for entertainment and restaurant venues is closed for now. Those foodstuffs need to be directed to grocery chains and small restaurants performing curbside and drive through deliveries. And food pantries.
Farmers should be fully compensated for their produce. Start with the small, family farms before rewarding the giant food factory farms! They’ve plundered enough of our recent public safety net funding. The family farmers didn’t get much of it at all. Shame!
Yes, the economy will bounce back. Eventually. Meanwhile, normal will be redefined and it will take time to do that. Economic activity in many sectors will grow slowly because of redefined normals.
Again, take deep breaths, remain calm, and keep moving forward. Do not accept every news scrap as earth shattering and life-changing. It isn’t.
All news must be digested and understood. Then we react to it intelligently. That way false positives, or negatives, can be dealt with appropriately.
OK, then; got it? Good. Carry on!
May 9, 2020
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