Getting It Right?

Polling leading up to the 2016 election was flawed. Many studies were done afterward to determine what went wrong. Not sure anyone came up with a definitive answer, but in 2020 the polls are not taking chances. Red faces of pollsters two elections in a row would be devastating.

To be sure, politicians rely on polling to determine which of their messages are resonating with voters, and which not. They adjust the message accordingly. They micro-niche their markets, too. This provides them mini-markets to try out pinpointed messages to audiences likely to accept their points. That is why the republican candidate is visiting so many places in such a hurry. He is attempting to sway bits and pieces of the voting public so polls will be influenced in his favor.

The opposite appears to be happening.

Not to be over pumped with this news, pollsters are adjusting their findings with more sensitive negative factors to tone down poll results. They hope to show clearly who is ahead or behind even if the polling is skewed.

The 2020 context has changed from 2016. So many voters are fed up with divisive politics they have chosen to put it behind them. They have voted early and by mail in record numbers. They are well over half of all votes cast in 2016 at this point. That means election day will find much smaller crowds and the early votes most likely have already elected the winner of the election.

How do you poll for that? Who do you poll? Only those who have not yet voted? Can you be statistically certain of that? And how do you blend what you learn from those people that would adjust what you think the early voters have already done?

Seems to me that higher math might think it has the answer to that question. Me thinks not.

We will only know the results once all the ballots have been counted. All of the ballots. However long it takes. We must get this election right.

Or there may not be another one.

October 31, 2020