China claims it will surpass USA’s economy soon. Why wouldn’t they? They have 1.4 billion people, or more. Housing, feeding and transporting them is enormous commerce. Educating them, networking with foreign markets and innovating products and science breakthroughs adds to the size of the economy, and its ability to trade with foreign markets. This should add up to a whopping economy.
China has also injected entrepreneurial interest and
supports for its citizens. Wealth among individuals has soared in the past two decades. The giant that is China should have spelled economic
growth years ago, but their social system is hampered by its ideological
governance structure. It is huge and unwieldly. This fact alone poses problems
for China’s aspirations. It is one thing to aspire to a large goal, it
is entirely another to manage reaching the goal.
China’s discipline is not with organizational structure. It
is with top down supervision and instruction. The history of mankind has taught
us that this methodology suffocates individual innovation and genius. This is
why China has underperformed for so long. Yes, they have come a long way and
are on the right path, but warning signs suggest failure. Here are some of
them.
1.
China is smothering the innovative spirit and
genius of Hong Kong. They have made this an ideological principality. It won’t
work. Governing such free thinking that creates commercial success will kill
the golden goose. Watch it happen. International partners will disinvest in
Hong Kong and leave the scene. Curtailed participation from such stakeholders
spells certain death.
2.
Secretiveness of government has invaded the
educational system which chokes off research, discovery and innovation.
Furthermore, ownership of the idea found in educational circles is controlled
by, if not outright owned, by China. The motivation for the individual to strive
for discovery and benefit from the earnings of it, is dampened or killed.
3.
China buys its raw materials and food from
nations that are still developing. They enter the country with fat bank accounts
and end up dominating the commercial landscape of that nation. The result:
fear, control and manipulation of supply chains, distribution and benefit to
the host nation. Foreign partners of China are learning a valuable lesson: Do
business with China and lose your identity and control over your national
future.
4.
Military adventurism in the China Sea may sound
attractive to China which has had minimal naval power. If they wish to pick
fights with the international community over such yearnings, then they are
building an economy that is not well anchored. There is a trap built into every
society that combines its military with the manufacturing sector of their
economy. The military-industrial complex is not a joke. America has learned
this lesson the hard way. Still trapped in it.
These warning flags spell certain failure of China’s
economic goals. If they change the underlying elements that have held them back
in the past, they will necessarily change their social and governing
underpinnings. I doubt they are able to shift to such a paradigm.
March 15, 2021
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